ANALYSES OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN RELIGIOUS TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

İNANÇ TURİZMİ İLE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİLERİN ANALİZLERİ

Abstract

Religious tourism encompasses the travels of individuals to visit sacred sites, participate in religious rituals, and experience spiritual values. In recent years, within the tourism literature, it has been regarded not only as a socio-cultural phenomenon but also as an economic instrument in terms of income generation. The introduction of this study emphasizes the contribution of religious tourism to economic growth through channels such as foreign exchange earnings, employment creation, and the support of regional development. It influences the macroeconomic structure via mechanisms of expenditure, investment, and income multipliers. Furthermore, in the case of Turkey, the significance of sacred centers and destinations emerges through their impact on the socio-economic structure, the production and supply system, and value-added creation methods. In this context, the positive contribution of tourism to the balance of payments and its role in alleviating foreign exchange bottlenecks are particularly crucial for developing countries.

In the methodological analysis of econometric tests used to determine the nature of relationships between variables, a panel dataset was constructed for eight countries with a high concentration of religious centers covering the period 2000–2024. The dependent variable is GDP, while the independent variables include growth rate, population, per capita income, tourism revenue, number of incoming tourists, and the share of tourism revenue in exports. A total of 200 observations were analyzed, and panel causality and cointegration tests were applied. According to the panel Granger causality test results, a bidirectional causality was observed between tourism revenue and GDP. This indicates that tourism affects economic growth, while economic growth simultaneously stimulates tourism demand. The series were found to be integrated of order one, I (1), according to unit root tests. Econometric findings reveal that: (i) both short- and long-term Granger causality tests indicate bidirectional causality between tourism revenues and economic growth/GDP, confirming that tourism triggers economic growth and that growth, in turn, increases tourism demand; (ii) the magnitude of the coefficients is economically significant; and (iii) the share of tourism in exports has a high marginal effect on economic growth. Specifically, a one-unit increase in economic growth raises GDP by approximately 7.29%, while a one-unit increase in per capita income raises GDP by around 7.01%. Similarly, a one-unit increase in the number of tourists increases GDP by about 5.9%, a one-unit increase in tourism revenue raises GDP by approximately 5.5%, and a one-unit increase in the share of tourism in exports contributes roughly 16.5% to GDP growth. These findings provide strong support for the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

Economic-policy implications can be addressed under three main pillars: (1) The demand side-covering branding, route and product diversification (pilgrimage routes, thematic cruise tours, multi-country circuits), off-season packages, and travel facilitation; (2) The supply side-encompassing quality standardization in infrastructure, accommodation, and transportation linkages, as well as guidance, security, and crowd management; and (3) Governance-highlighting the importance of preserving cultural heritage, integrating local employment and SMEs, and ensuring the sustainability of data monitoring and impact analyses. These dimensions indicate that by enhancing the value-added share of religious tourism-which currently remains low within Turkey’s overall tourism sector-religious tourism can generate a leverage effect on economic growth.