ALTIN VE GÜMÜŞ FİYATLARININ ENFLASYON VE DOLAYLI VERGİ GELİRLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI: THE EFFECTS OF GOLD AND SILVER PRICES ON INFLATION AND INDIRECT TAX REVENUES: AN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH FOR TÜRKİYE

Gümrah Can BAŞDAĞ

doi:10.5281/zenodo.18859666

Authors

Gümrah Can BAŞDAĞ kilis 7 aralık üniversitesi https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5164-2981

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18859666

Keywords:

Indirect taxes, Gold prices, Silver prices, Inflation, ARDL bounds test

Abstract

Structural transformations in the global financial system and increasing geopolitical risks have reinforced the role of gold and silver as “safe-haven” assets, thereby amplifying their influence on macroeconomic variables. Particularly in developing and outward-oriented economies such as Turkey, fluctuations in commodity prices affect not only investment decisions but also general price stability and the sustainability of public finances through cost channels. As both savings instruments and industrial inputs, precious metals create bidirectional effects on consumer behavior and nominal expenditures due to their price movements. In this context, the wealth effect and cost increases caused by rising gold and silver prices constitute a critical area of research concerning the interaction between indirect tax revenues-collected through consumption-and inflationary processes, particularly in terms of fiscal and monetary policy effectiveness. Given that a significant portion of public revenue in the Turkish economy depends on indirect taxes, understanding how these price movements impact budget performance is crucial for economic predictability.This study examines the effects of gold and silver prices on inflation and indirect tax revenues in Turkey using the ARDL bounds testing approach. Monthly data spanning from 2010 to 2025 were utilized in the analysis, where indirect tax revenues served as the dependent variable, while independent variables included per-gram gold price, silver price, consumer price index, and exchange rate. Initially, the stationarity levels of the variables were analyzed using ADF and PP unit root tests. The results of the ARDL bounds test revealed the presence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. Long-run coefficient estimates indicated that a 1% increase in gold prices raises indirect tax revenues by approximately 0.45%, whereas silver prices exert a positive impact of about 0.32%. The effect of inflation on indirect tax revenues was found to be 0.78%. According to the Error Correction Model (ECM) results, short-term imbalances are corrected at a speed of around 23.4% per month. Diagnostic tests confirmed the econometric reliability of the model, while CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests demonstrated the absence of structural breaks and parameter stability. Findings highlight that precious metal prices serve as significant indicators in shaping tax policy and managing inflation.

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THE EFFECTS OF GOLD AND SILVER PRICES ON INFLATION AND INDIRECT TAX REVENUES: AN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH FOR TÜRKİYE