BORSA İSTANBUL TİCARET SEKTÖRÜNDE FİNANSAL SIKINTI TAHMİNİ: ALTMAN, SPRİNGATE, GROVER VE ZMİJEWSKİ MODELLERİ İLE KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR ANALİZ: BORSA İSTANBUL TİCARET SEKTÖRÜNDE FİNANSAL SIKINTI TAHMİNİ: ALTMAN, SPRİNGATE, GROVER VE ZMİJEWSKİ MODELLERİ İLE KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR ANALİZ

Fırat KINALI

doi:10.5281/zenodo.18052393

Authors

Fırat KINALI Selçuk Üniversitesi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4908-4351

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18052393

Keywords:

Financial Distress, Financial Distress Prediction Models, Borsa Istanbul

Abstract

The primary objective of this study is to measure the risk of financial distress among companies operating in the trading sector of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) using their financial data for the 2021–2024 period and to evaluate it comparatively through the Altman, Springate, Grover, and Zmijewski models. Given that the early detection of financial distress is an important factor for the continuity of companies and investor decisions, the study makes a significant contribution at the sectoral level with its current and multi-model approach. The study's data set consists of 19 companies in the trade sector with complete access to their financial statements, and annual financial distress scores were calculated for each company using financial ratios related to the four models. According to the findings of the study, the Altman model shows that the vast majority of companies are in the safe zone and that the risk of financial distress is low across the sector. Although the Springate model results classify some companies as risky, the overall picture is that there is no risk of financial distress. While most companies appear to be low risk in the Grover model, the Zmijewski model classified certain companies in a higher risk group due to its sensitivity to indebtedness and profitability. This difference demonstrates the sensitivity of the models, which varies according to sectoral conditions and weight ratios. The study reveals that the trade sector generally has a sound financial structure for the 2021–2024 period; however, it highlights the need for certain financial regulations for companies in the gray or risky zone.

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FINANCIAL DISTRESS PREDICTION IN THE BORSA ISTANBUL TRADE SECTOR: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS USING THE ALTMAN, SPRINGATE, GROVER AND ZMIJEWSKI MODELS