SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK ENDEKSİ UYUMUNUN FİRMA İFLAS RİSKİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST ŞİRKETLERİ ÜZERİNDEN BİR Z-SCORE ANALİZİ: THE IMPACT OF SUSTAINABILITY INDEX COMPLIANCE ON FIRM BANKRUPTCY RISK: A Z-SCORE ANALYSIS OF BIST COMPANIES

Ümit Can GÜVENÇER

doi:10.5281/zenodo.17723613

Authors

Ümit Can GÜVENÇER Uludağ Üniversitesi https://orcid.org/0009-0005-1261-8056

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17723613

Keywords:

Sustainability Index, Bankruptcy Risk, Altman Z-Score, Borsa İstanbul

Abstract

This study examines the impact of companies included in the Borsa İstanbul (BIST) Sustainability Index on their bankruptcy risks using the Altman Z-Score model. In the study, index members were classified as the experimental group, while companies outside the index were classified as the control group. Companies' financial ratios were calculated using consolidated financial statements for 2022-2023 obtained from the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP), and the Z-Score model was applied. The findings reveal that the average Z-Score values of index members are significantly higher than those of companies outside the index. This indicates that companies complying with sustainability criteria have a lower risk of bankruptcy. Analyses conducted at the sectoral level reveal that index membership contributes more strongly to financial stability, particularly in the manufacturing and holding sectors. Regression results confirm that inclusion in the sustainability index has a positive and significant effect on the Z-Score. The study demonstrates that sustainability criteria are a critical element not only in the context of social responsibility but also in terms of financial risk management, offering important insights for investors, financial managers, and regulators.

References

Akkaya, G. C., Demireli, E., & Yakut, Ü. H. (2009). İşletmelerde finansal başarısızlık tahminlemesi: Yapay sinir ağları modeli ile İMKB üzerine bir uygulama. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), 187-216.

Aktaş, R., Karğın, S., & Karğın, M. (2012). Nakit akışlarının sağlandığı faaliyetler yöntemi ile işletmelerin nakit akış profillerinin incelenmesi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 56, 101-118.

Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933

Altman, E. I. (2000). Predicting financial distress of companies: Revisiting the Z-score and zeta models. Retrieved July 16, 2014, from http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~ealtman/Zscores.pdf

Ayyıldız, N, (2025). Borsa İstanbul Sektörlerinin Finansal Performanslarının Karşılaştırılması: Z-Skoru Yöntemiyle 2017-2024 Dönemi Analizi. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 10(1), 312-324.

Balcaen, S., & Ooghe, H. (2006). 35 years of studies on business failure: An overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems. The British Accounting Review, 38(1), 63-93.

Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4(Supplement), 71-111. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490171

Beloskar, V. D., & Rao, S. N. (2023). Did ESG save the day? Evidence from India during the COVID-19 crisis. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 30(1), 73-107.

Cheng, B., Ioannou, I., & Serafeim, G. (2014). Corporate social responsibility and access to finance. Strategic Management Journal, 35(1), 1-23.

Çalışan, C., & Erdem, B. (2021). Muhasebe bilgi kalitesinin sermaye piyasalarına etkisi: BIST-50 üzerine bir uygulama. Ardahan Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 3(2), 134-141.

Çavuş, G., & Başar, A. B. (2020). Finansal başarısızlık durumunun öngörülmesinde nakit akış bilgilerinin rolü. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 22(Özel Sayı), ös292-ös318.

Çelik, M. S. (2018). Altman Z-Skor Modeli Kullanılarak Bist-30 Endeksinde Yer Alan İmalat Şirketlerinin Finansal Başarısızlık Riskinin Tahmin Edilmesi. Conference: 5 th International Congress on Political, Economic and Social Studies (ICPESS) At: Nigde/Turkey. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330754594_Altman_Z-Skor_Modeli_Kullanilarak_Bist-30_Endeksinde_Yer_Alan_Imalat_Sirketlerinin_Finansal_Basarisizlik_Riskinin_Tahmin_Edilmesi_Estimating_the_Risk_of_Financial_Failure_of_Manufacturing_Companies_in

Dereköy, F. (2020). Borç ödeme gücünün ölçülmesinde geleneksel oranlar ile nakit akış oranlarının karşılaştırılması: İmalat sektörü örneği. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 4(1), 153-170.

Düzer, M., & Önce, S. (2018). Effect of disclosures on sustainability performance indicators on financial performance: An application in BIST. Muhasebe ve Vergi Uygulamaları Dergisi, 11(1), 93-117.

Eccles, R. G., Ioannou, I., & Serafeim, G. (2012). The impact of a corporate culture of sustainability on corporate behavior and performance. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper.

Fatemi, A., Glaum, M., & Kaiser, S. (2018). ESG performance and firm value: The moderating role of disclosure. Global Finance Journal, 38, 45-64.

FitzPatrick, P. J. (1932). A comparison of the ratios of successful industrial enterprises with those of failed companies. The Certified Public Accountant, 12(10-12), 598-731.

Friede, G., Busch, T., & Bassen, A. (2015). ESG and financial performance: Aggregated evidence from more than 2000 empirical studies. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 5(4), 210-233.

Gentry, J. A., Newbold, P., & Whitford, D. T. (1985). Predicting bankruptcy: If cash flow’s not the bottom line, what is? Financial Analysts Journal, 41(5), 47-56.

Gombola, M. J., Haskins, M. E., Ketz, J. E., & Williams, D. D. (1987). Cash flow in bankruptcy prediction. Financial Management, 16(4), 55-65.

Gritta, R. D., Adrangi, B., Adams, B., & Tatyanina, N. (2008). An update on airline financial condition and insolvency prospects using the Altman Z-score model. Journal of Transportation Research Forum, 47(2), 133-138.

Harrison, J. S., & van der Laan Smith, J. (2015). Responsible accounting for stakeholders. Journal of Management Studies, 52(7), 935-960.

Harrison, J. S., & Wicks, A. C. (2013). Stakeholder theory, value, and firm performance. Business Ethics Quarterly, 23(1), 97-124.

Ohlson, J. A., (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131.

Yılmaz, C., & Cavlak, H. (2020). Nakit Akış Yapısı-İşletme Yaşam Döngüsü ile Finansal Sıkıntının Birlikte Değerlendirilmesi: BIST Sürdürülebilirlik Endeksi’nde Bir Araştırma. Journal of Yasar University, 15(60), 806-832.

THE IMPACT OF SUSTAINABILITY INDEX COMPLIANCE ON FIRM BANKRUPTCY RISK: A Z-SCORE ANALYSIS OF BIST COMPANIES