VERİMLİLİK İLE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK ANALİZ: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR TÜRKİYE

Levent AKSU

doi:10.5281/zenodo.17720126

Authors

Levent AKSU Balıkesir Üniversity https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2298-0762

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17720126

Keywords:

Productivity, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), Economic Growth, Human Capital, Physical Capital, Employment, Technological Progress, Granger Causality, Cointegration Analysis, Turkish Economy, Crisis Periods, Econometric Modeling.

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between productivity and economic growth in the Turkish economy over the period 1980-2024. The analysis employs key variables such as total factor productivity (TFP), human capital, physical capital, employment rate, and manufacturing productivity. Econometric methods including ADF, P-P, and KPSS unit root tests, Granger causality analysis, and the Toda-Yamamoto MWALD causality test are applied. The findings reveal that most of the series are stationary at the I(1) level and that a long-run cointegration relationship exists among them. The results indicate that increases in productivity indicators have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth rates, with total factor productivity and human capital investments emerging as crucial determinants of sustainable growth. When crisis periods (2001, 2008, 2018, and 2020) are examined, temporary declines in productivity levels are observed; however, the medium-term effects on growth appear to be recoverable. Empirical estimations show that productivity gains in energy- and capital-intensive sectors can support economic growth even without proportional increases in employment (the “jobless growth” effect). According to the regression estimates, a 1% rise in TFP increases GDP by approximately 0.65% (R²=0.71). In conclusion, the sustainability of economic growth in Turkey largely depends on productivity improvements, technological innovation, and the enhancement of human capital quality. These findings are consistent with the assumptions of the Solow-Swan growth model, suggesting that long-term growth is primarily driven by technological progress and productivity dynamics. Policy implications highlight that investments in education, R&D, digitalization, and innovative production processes will remain the main driving forces of economic growth.

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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY